Nancy B King

Update: The snow got a bit carried away; like it buried us. We have about 10 to 12 inches in the drive. The car would high center before the front wheels were out of the garage. So, we are home-bound until the snow plow people come by tonight or tomorrow some time. Husband’s electric show blower takes care of the steps and a narrow trail at the bottom to the mailbox, but it can’t begin to handle 10 inches of snow on the driveway. I’ve had enough writing today; it’s time to move on to the washing, paying bills, etc. It’s interesting how my morning idea of a warm, showy, wintry Alaska day has changed to being house bound and a bit bored. Isn’t there a famous poem about being snowbound?

What a difference it makes for the temp to be twenty above rather than ten or twenty below. A sigh of relief and a letting go of bracing against the cold. On top of that the market has been up and I’ve been doing some buying—at least for the short-term. My rule is down 8% and out you go!!!!

I’m sitting here at my computer writing, listening to great classical music on my wireless radio (thanks, Daughter), and gazing out my window at the fluffy snow coming down.

I am writing  teacher background info for my stock analysis worksheet. Stock Market Game program teachers have been  asking the national office for a structured approach students can use to identify quality companies.

How are you getting ready for the Super Bowl Game? Are you preparing for the party you are giving? Are you getting ready to go to a friend’s house for their party? Are you going to a sports bar? Above all, are you set to watch the Super Bowl ads?

Here are some things to think about concerning Super Bowl ads and investing in the advertised companies. Thanks go to Allen Cox of the Maryland Council on Economic Education for creating this teacher background information for the Stock Market Game program high school student project.

National Public Radio reports the Nielson Co. estimates 111 million people watched the Green Bay Packers beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLV. It’s expected that the audience this year will be even larger because for the first time in the history of the event, it will be streamed live to mobile devices and computers. Socialtimes.com predicts an additional 1.585 million people will watch the game via NBC’s live stream.

Each year companies advertise their products and services during the Super Bowl. Because the Super Bowl is one of the largest consumer audiences in the world, companies view it as an opportunity to premiere new advertising campaigns and debut new products and services. In 1984, Apple Computer introduced its Macintosh computer with a memorable, futuristic ad that suggested Apple would overtake the computer dominance of IBM. According to the Kellogg School of Management blog, the 2011 Super Bowl served as a launching pad for advertising campaigns that included companies like E*Trade, Snickers, Chrysler, Bud Light, Cars.com and Volkswagen.

USA Today reported that advertising slots for this year’s Super Bowl were sold out by Thanksgiving 2011. However, this opportunity does not come cheap. For this year’s Super Bowl – Super Bowl XLVI – NBC is charging between $3 to $4 million (most ads go for between $2.5 and $2.8 million) for each 30-second commercial. Perhaps a sign of an improving economy, several long time Super Bowl advertisers like Pepsi and General Motors who did not advertise last year will be returning this year.

Some believe that spending the resources to advertise during the Super Bowl is a good investment for a company. William Spain at Marketwatch writes:   “You can’t get the kind of viewership the Super Bowl offers anywhere else and in terms of the cost to reach each one of them, it is actually considerably cheaper than some other top programming, notably NBC’s Sunday Night Football.”

He quotes George Belch, chairman of the marketing department at San Diego State University,  “That probably partly explains why many companies are still there and why they still think it is a good investment. Plus, the aura of curiosity [about the ads] is still there and with the public relations value around it, the value extends well beyond the commercial.”

Others believe that the impact of advertising during the Super Bowl is only slight. According to a study conducted by the Business Department of the University of Colorado, “Companies announcing the purchase of advertising slots during the Super Bowl broadcast may get a slight boost in their stock prices… perennial Super Bowl advertisers like Budweiser do not see an impact on their stock prices… where the corporation was not a regular Super Bowl advertiser there was an uptick in stock price of about one percent… For regular advertisers, the stock prices reaction was statistically negligible and was slightly negative.”(Campbell & Hughson, 2007)

For The Stock Market Game™ investor, the Super Bowl presents an interesting investment research opportunity. In this project SMG teams will decide on the effectiveness of Super Bowl advertising and predict the immediate impact of that advertisement on the price of stock.

On a slight tangent, but none the less interesting is Mark Hulbert’s debunking of the Super Bowl indicator. The Super Bowl Indicator suggests stocks will rise during the year if the winning team is from the original National Football League and will fall if the team is from the old American Football League. You can read Mark’s column here.

Click  Super Bowl Investing and you, too, can determine the effectiveness of Super Bowl advertisements and their impact on companies’ stock prices.  

As part of their class work for the fall 2011 Stock Market Game program, the winning team in the Middle School Division , Team  ZZ113, from Ms. O’Leary’s class at Gruening Middle School created a Power Point presentation about their portfolio. It recaps their portfolio and its performance, their strategy for choosing stocks, a short explanation of 3 of their 6 holdings, and their conclusion about their investment strategy. Take a minute to view their nine-slide  presentation.

I am proud of Ms. O’Leary’s teacher-student work during the Stock Market Game program time throughout the fall semester and these students’ learnings.

Yes, middle school and high school students can identify quality, high-performing stocks. The following was compiled by the New York office of the Stock Market Game program—the best performing stocks from student portfolios nationwide during fall semester 2011 (as of the end of Nov—the game ended Dec. 16th):

Company Ticker                                             9/6/2011   11/21/2011   Increase

5. Build-A-Bear Workshop               BBW          5.31          7.92              49%

4.  Aéropostale, Inc.               ARO           10.39        15.76            52%

3. Commercial Vehicle Group       CVGI             6.31         9.66              53%

2. American Dental Partners        ADPI          10.01        18.65            86%

1. Pharmasset, Inc.                          VRUS         70.53        134.14          91%

5. Build-A-Bear Workshop: At Build-A-Bear Workshop, their mission is to bring the teddy bear to life. Located mainly in malls, the company’s stores allow kids to design their own teddy bears and other stuffed animals complete with clothing, shoes, and a multitude of accessories. Customers can build bears online, too.

4. Aéropostale, Inc.: A mall-based, specialty retailer of casual apparel and accessories, principally targeting 14 to 17 year-old young women and men through its Aéropostale stores and 7 to 12 year-old kids through its P.S. from Aéropostale stores.

3. Commercial Vehicle Group: A leading supplier of fully integrated system solutions for the global commercial vehicle market, including the heavy-duty truck market, the construction and agriculture markets and the specialty and military transportation markets.

2. American Dental Partners: Helping dentists focus on drilling (and not billing) is the mission of the company. It provides management and support services for the growing group practice segment of the dental care industry. Through long-term service agreements, the company manages about 25 general and specialty dental practice groups operating some 275 dental facilities in more than 20 states, mainly in the eastern and midwestern part of the US.

1. Pharmasset, Inc.: A clinical-stage pharmaceutical company committed to discovering, developing and commercializing novel drugs to treat viral infections. Its primary focus is on the development of oral therapeutics for the treatment of hepatitis C virus (“HCV”). Congrats to the SMG students who uncovered its potential!

This week I’m teaching a Mutual Funds class for teachers interested in using the Stock Market Game program in their classrooms or are simply interested in the information for their own use. After a short introductory lecture and discussion about mutual funds in general, I gave an in-class assignment to write an answer to the question, “What is a mutual fund?” I always encourage creativity. This time it came in the form on Old McMutual.

This week I’m teaching my Intro to Stocks class to 19 great teachers who are planning on using the Stock Market Game program in their classrooms.  Yesterday we began at 4:30 p.m. and were to quit at 8:00 p.m. I happened to look at the clock at 8:05 and then around the room;  it was a buzz with stock analysis conversation as they collected data on their individually chosen companies. I heard remarks of pleasant surprise and utter dismay concerning what they were finding out about their companies. Thank you,  Alaska Council on Economic Education for underwriting this endeavor.

The Stock Market Game Program: Introduction to Stocks

1 Graded Graduate Credit: $85  September 13, 15, 17, 2011

Tuesday and Thursday evenings 4:30 – 8:00 p.m. and Saturday 8:00 a.m.- 4:00 p.m.

Acquire a better understanding of stocks and the stock market and the basic economic concepts—opportunity cost, supply and demand, competition, profit, economic growth—that drive the market. Using computers, online sites, and specific guidelines, learn how to choose quality stocks. Obtain specific suggestions for implementing the Stock Market Game in your classroom—an innovative way to enhance and reinforce your core curriculum (math, language arts, social studies, economics) using an online simulation tool. Receive a $40 stipend at the end of the semester if you actively use the Stock Market Game in your classroom with at least 3 student teams.

I am struggling with writing the lesson about stock exchanges for my online class-to-be. As usual, I have written it in sections and was fairly satisfied with each section. However, yesterday  I read it as a whole, and oh my goodness, were there ever  holes, bumps, and jolts. In addition, it was out of balance—too heavy in the middle and too light on each end. Today, I’ve worked on tearing apart, rearranging and adding to the first section—the overview of stock exchanges.  I have also tried to cut some from the NYSE section. I am finding it difficult to deal with the feeling that every little piece of info is vital to anyone’s needed and desired information about the NYSE. How can they possibly live without every tidbit? On the other hand, I want the NYSE section to be less than 5 pages with 1.5 spacing.

When I teach, whether it is reading, writing, and spelling to dyslexics or about the stock market and how to determine quality stocks, bonds, and mutual funds, my goal always is to make a positive difference in the individual’s life through his or her increased skills and knowledge. Teachers often receive little fed back after the fact. The following excerpt is from an email that made my day yesterday:

“Greetings Nancy, I am one of your former stock market class students (2x actually) and am still proud to this day that my partner and I in your class won the stock market game one year in the adult division. What I really want to tell you is my daughter’s personal finance class (high school), her group also won their class stock market game. Just want you to know, your teachings are being passed on down to the next generation!”