Nancy B King

The balance of world power has just shifted! As of this morning, Iran halted the sale of oil to France and Great Britain. Earlier this week they stopped shipping to some of the smaller European countries. Iran has beat us at our own game.

So much for the effectiveness of our Iranian oil sanctions which don’t go into effect until July. The delay was to give European countries time to find an alternative source of oil. Does Saudi Arabia actually have the excess oil reserves that most people seem to think it has?

Now, the European countries will have to rely even more heavily on Russia’s oil and pipelines that run through the continent. Russia will be laughing all the way to the bank as it pushes oil down its pipelines to Europe. At some point in time, some European country will do something Russia doesn’t like, and Russia will simply tighten down the oil spigot. It has already done that to a couple eastern European countries. As a matter of fact, since Latvia soundly voted against Russian as an official second language; what is their level of dependence on Russian oil?

For the past month or so Iran has been putting in place “off the books” oil trade agreements with Russia, China, India, and Japan—agreements to sell oil to those countries in non-US dollars that bypass the European and U. S. banks. It is all in place now, and the world has just changed. Iran, Russia, and China against who—the U.S. France, Germany, and Israel. I suspect today is a historic day.

Update: The snow got a bit carried away; like it buried us. We have about 10 to 12 inches in the drive. The car would high center before the front wheels were out of the garage. So, we are home-bound until the snow plow people come by tonight or tomorrow some time. Husband’s electric show blower takes care of the steps and a narrow trail at the bottom to the mailbox, but it can’t begin to handle 10 inches of snow on the driveway. I’ve had enough writing today; it’s time to move on to the washing, paying bills, etc. It’s interesting how my morning idea of a warm, showy, wintry Alaska day has changed to being house bound and a bit bored. Isn’t there a famous poem about being snowbound?

What a difference it makes for the temp to be twenty above rather than ten or twenty below. A sigh of relief and a letting go of bracing against the cold. On top of that the market has been up and I’ve been doing some buying—at least for the short-term. My rule is down 8% and out you go!!!!

I’m sitting here at my computer writing, listening to great classical music on my wireless radio (thanks, Daughter), and gazing out my window at the fluffy snow coming down.

I am writing  teacher background info for my stock analysis worksheet. Stock Market Game program teachers have been  asking the national office for a structured approach students can use to identify quality companies.

How are you getting ready for the Super Bowl Game? Are you preparing for the party you are giving? Are you getting ready to go to a friend’s house for their party? Are you going to a sports bar? Above all, are you set to watch the Super Bowl ads?

Here are some things to think about concerning Super Bowl ads and investing in the advertised companies. Thanks go to Allen Cox of the Maryland Council on Economic Education for creating this teacher background information for the Stock Market Game program high school student project.

National Public Radio reports the Nielson Co. estimates 111 million people watched the Green Bay Packers beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLV. It’s expected that the audience this year will be even larger because for the first time in the history of the event, it will be streamed live to mobile devices and computers. Socialtimes.com predicts an additional 1.585 million people will watch the game via NBC’s live stream.

Each year companies advertise their products and services during the Super Bowl. Because the Super Bowl is one of the largest consumer audiences in the world, companies view it as an opportunity to premiere new advertising campaigns and debut new products and services. In 1984, Apple Computer introduced its Macintosh computer with a memorable, futuristic ad that suggested Apple would overtake the computer dominance of IBM. According to the Kellogg School of Management blog, the 2011 Super Bowl served as a launching pad for advertising campaigns that included companies like E*Trade, Snickers, Chrysler, Bud Light, Cars.com and Volkswagen.

USA Today reported that advertising slots for this year’s Super Bowl were sold out by Thanksgiving 2011. However, this opportunity does not come cheap. For this year’s Super Bowl – Super Bowl XLVI – NBC is charging between $3 to $4 million (most ads go for between $2.5 and $2.8 million) for each 30-second commercial. Perhaps a sign of an improving economy, several long time Super Bowl advertisers like Pepsi and General Motors who did not advertise last year will be returning this year.

Some believe that spending the resources to advertise during the Super Bowl is a good investment for a company. William Spain at Marketwatch writes:   “You can’t get the kind of viewership the Super Bowl offers anywhere else and in terms of the cost to reach each one of them, it is actually considerably cheaper than some other top programming, notably NBC’s Sunday Night Football.”

He quotes George Belch, chairman of the marketing department at San Diego State University,  “That probably partly explains why many companies are still there and why they still think it is a good investment. Plus, the aura of curiosity [about the ads] is still there and with the public relations value around it, the value extends well beyond the commercial.”

Others believe that the impact of advertising during the Super Bowl is only slight. According to a study conducted by the Business Department of the University of Colorado, “Companies announcing the purchase of advertising slots during the Super Bowl broadcast may get a slight boost in their stock prices… perennial Super Bowl advertisers like Budweiser do not see an impact on their stock prices… where the corporation was not a regular Super Bowl advertiser there was an uptick in stock price of about one percent… For regular advertisers, the stock prices reaction was statistically negligible and was slightly negative.”(Campbell & Hughson, 2007)

For The Stock Market Game™ investor, the Super Bowl presents an interesting investment research opportunity. In this project SMG teams will decide on the effectiveness of Super Bowl advertising and predict the immediate impact of that advertisement on the price of stock.

On a slight tangent, but none the less interesting is Mark Hulbert’s debunking of the Super Bowl indicator. The Super Bowl Indicator suggests stocks will rise during the year if the winning team is from the original National Football League and will fall if the team is from the old American Football League. You can read Mark’s column here.

Click  Super Bowl Investing and you, too, can determine the effectiveness of Super Bowl advertisements and their impact on companies’ stock prices.