Oh where, oh where,
Has the ‘Recovery Summer’ gone?
Oh where, oh where can it be?
With employment cut short
And recession cut long
Oh where, oh where can it be?
Unemployment rate in June—9.5
Unemployment rate at the end of August—9.6
Now, I know why I have been feeling so unenthusiastic about stocks—other than we are in a major recession with no substantial sign of sustainable growth coming our way.
I’ve been working on a lecture about economic cycles and the return on stocks, bonds, and cash. Since I do not have access to the Ibbotson data, I’ve been digging around the Internet and found a great data table from Aswath Damdaran. Take a look at the chart I created from his data, particularly for the return on stocks from 2000-2009 —a minus 0.96%. That is like, “Oh, my gosh!” I know there have been ‘up times’, but the ‘down times’ seem to have left a more lasting impression on me.
| Year | Stocks | T Bonds | T Bills |
| 1960-2009 | 9.26% | 4.97% | 3.70% |
| 2000-2009 | -.96% | 6.26% | 2.72% |
Stocks were up 25.92% in 2009. However, stocks were down 36.58% in 2008. Maybe that is why the Downs make more of an impression on me than the Ups.
Yesterday Anchorage broke the previous record set in 1951 of 27 straight days of rain—Yesterday was day 28. It looks as if we will once again have rain before the day is over–day 29. But who is counting!
It’s difficult to work on the ark while waddling around with web feet.
Watching two evenly matched teams—even if both are bad (45-71 vs 48-68)—makes for good TV while doing other mundane tasks.
Seattle has been playing so miserably that I decided to cheer for losses so they might at least beat their previous loss record of 104 games their first year. I can’t get it right; when I was rooting for them to win, they lost. Now that I’m rooting for them to loose, they are winning.
It’s been a well-packed summer.
• I spent three weeks in June “outside”. Basically a week in Chicago, one in the Philadelphia area, and another in New York. It was one of the nicest trips I have had in a long time. Great food, activities, and conversation. I had intended to take pictures and blog every couple days, but obviously that didn’t work out.
• The first of July I started back with my educational therapy clients. My two clients turned into six and my four hours a week of work turned into 30+. Thank goodness school starts next Wednesday so I finished with the last two clients this week. I will take only two or three this fall—a doable number on top of Stock Market Game activities, etc.
• In my spare time the last couple weeks, I put together a Stock Market Game Power Point (my very least favorite thing to do) and gave it yesterday afternoon at a District-wide in-service for language arts and social studies teachers. The attendance in my sectional, my PPt, and my delivery were vastly improved over the previous time I did it about three years ago.
• Now, it’s getting the house running smoothly again—I’m catching up on washing and ironing today—and getting ready to teach my two-week Economics and Stocks for Teachers class that begins on Sept. 14, plus write the bonds class I will teach October 19, 21, and 23.
• And no, I don’t see any particular rosy news on the economic/investment side of life. In my opinion, the political landscape is far too unsettled—uncertain outcomes for the election, added taxation, and added regulation. Many businesses and individuals are sitting on cash waiting to see which way the wind is going to blow—including me. I may have to use my spare cash for taxes rather than for spending.
Sister emailed me that my blog was depressing—-I might as well add this August jobs update!
Chart of the Day: The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever Takes A Turn For The Worse
We run this chart every month that Calculated Risk puts together when the jobs data comes out, and it’s always ugly, but this time it shows something really stark.
That red line — which shows the trajectory of our recovery — has now clearly taken a sharp line back down, after (for awhile) curving back higher. Ugly.
This is a small state and a small community with many interconnections. May our friends, Ted Stevens, Dana and Cory Tindall, and Terry Smith, rest in peace.
What a life; What a woman!
Thank you, Daughter, for the opportunity to have had lunch with Patricia Neal at the Valdez Theatre Conference several years ago.
